Financial Times'is on huvitav artikkel (tulemüüri taga, kuid saab tasuta registreerida) kauglendude odavlennunduse mudeli võimalikest arengutest. Kõige pikemalt peatutakse loomulikel põhjustel Norwegiani käekäigul. Muu hulgas leiab artiklist arvutused Atlandiüleste lendude omahinna ja marginaalide üle. Siit koorub selgelt välja, mis piirist keskmise hinnaga müüdava lennupileti hind allapoole ei kuku.

The cost of flying an aeroplane from New York to London on a 787-9, the Dreamliner model Norwegian has on order, is roughly $90,000 one way, says one industry figure. That includes fuel, crew, maintenance, navigation and landing fees, ground handling and ownership or lease costs — but not sales, marketing, distribution, back office, other overheads or profit margin. Taxes and non-fuel charges are passed directly to the passenger.

If that aircraft had 354 seats like the 787-9 and typical load factors — a measure of how full planes are — for low-cost airlines, a year-round average one-way airfare, including passenger ancillaries such as food and drink, would need to be about $340-$380 to earn a margin of about 4 per cent.

Seat mile costs, another standard industry measure, on the smaller 787-8 are slightly higher, requiring an estimate of about 5 per cent more revenue. According to Mr Kjos, the Dreamliners each bring a 20 to 30 per cent fuel cost saving — close to $10m a year each — but the planes need to be put to work for up 18 hours a day to make the operation viable.

With Norwegian pricing its transatlantic airfares out of London at around £300 return, compared with the £500-£600 offered by rivals, the scale of its low-cost ambition is so daring many doubt it can pull it off.

“This feels like yet another airline that starts up, has a go and runs out of money,” said Gerald Khoo, an airline analyst at Liberum, a broker. It was unclear whether Norwegian’s maths added up, he says, adding: “I don’t see how the Norwegian model is any different to lots of other airlines that have tried and failed.”

Kuid odavlennu kauglendude ärimudeli tulevikku näeb nii mõnigi hoopis Aasia ja Euroopa vahel.

The real opportunity, to build a low-cost, long-haul business is in Asia, say observers. “If we look at the underlying view of how the market will develop in Europe, it will be inbound leisure traffic from Asia,” said Chris Tarry, an aviation consultant. “The growth markets are in China and south Asia.”

Ninety per cent of its growth is forecast to come within Asia, but London, Paris and Rome top its list as “vanity routes”, says the airline’s (AirAsia) founder Tony Fernandes.